Once upon a time, I wrote a lot about search engine optimization (SEO). That is obvious if you flip through previous blogs on my website. However, my opinion has shifted as we approach 2025.
Imagine you were starting a website for a new business in 2025. Should you invest time or money in SEO blogging? For most situations, I think the answer should be “no.”
Here are three reasons why…
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Getting traction in SEO is harder than ever.
The standard advice for building your SEO from zero is to focus on long-tail keywords. Lon-tail keywords are those with relatively few searches. While each keyword only offers limited traffic, you can use those to build a small trickle of traffic to your website. Go deeper on the topics driving traffic, and soon you will start generating domain authority, backlinks, and followers.
Today, focusing on long-tail keywords could be a weak strategy. Research from Sparktoro suggests that long-tail searches are becoming less common (link in comments). Rand Fishkin (the author) doesn’t identify why long tail searches are declining, but I suspect it may relate to AI. Take a question like “Why do cacti prefer low-acid soil?” ChatGPT is already better at this than Google.
Many people are pushing a narrative that people are switching en mass from Google to chatbots. The evidence here is thin – once again, Sparktoro has data that suggests Google search is not being displaced for most internet users. However, the displacement may be most acute in long-tail search terms, which would be painful for new websites.
Branded search is also on the increase. “Yahoo Fantasy Football” was searched 3x more than “Fantasy Football.” If this behavior holds across categories, an increasing percentage of searches are un-winnable for challenger brands.
Google is increasingly pay-to-win
Between AI-generated answers, ads, and review sites, content from companies on bottom-of-funnel search terms is pushed lower and lower on the page. This could be an intentional move by Google to force companies to pay for ads to get search traffic.
Let’s talk about a specific example of this: Reddit. Reddit posts started ranking exceptionally well in Google searches in the past few years. Almost anything you search leads to a Reddit post, especially for terms related to product comparisons. Some people say Reddit ranks well because people love these results, but I’ve seen no proof of that (though I honestly haven’t looked).
I’ve found the quality of Reddit search results is moderate to bad. Many of the Reddit posts I’m recommended are several years old and often don’t even answer the question I was asking. Not to mention, I can’t verify the writer’s expertise, who they work for, if they are a bot, etc.
Until recently, I had assumed others liked these Reddit posts. However, Google’s approach would be designed to punish companies that would naturally rank at the top.
Take CRMs.
Many companies that sell CRMs have built a whole galaxy of blog posts, YouTube videos, and other SEO content on marketing, sales, and business-related topics. There are a lot of reasons for this, but one is to organically rank for search terms like “best CRM for small business.”
However, when I search for “best CRM for small business,” the first organic result from a company that sells CRMs is way down the page. Ads take up the first 1/3, and Reddit and Quora take up another 1/3. Ultimately, this means companies need to buy ads to be visible in Google searches. Pushing Reddit higher in the rankings helps achieve this goal.
Side note: the top-ranked Reddit post in this specific search was weak. There are particular caveats, and many top-ranked responses have been deleted. Overall, it has +6 karma, which is a dreadful score. Not useful.
While Reddit’s status could go down just like it went up, it’s clear that Google is not interested in giving out prime commercial real estate for free.
Search could look very different by 2026
Search in 2024 looked a lot like 2023, which looked like 2022, which looked like 2019. There were marginal changes, but most top-quality pages from 2019 would probably do well in 2024 and vice versa. The fundamental rules have stayed the same.
How can this be true? Aren’t there annual reports and updates about how much search is changing? I don’t work in SEO directly, but these shifts appear minor. They become overblown because of the “pornography of change,” where marketers focus on what is hot and trendy rather than established and consistent.
With that said, the next couple of years could radically reshape search.
Google’s antitrust issues are the leading cause of uncertainty. If Google can sell off or restructure non-search elements of its business to appease courts, then search in 2025 and 2026 could look similar. However, if Google is forced to share key intellectual property, or split up the search business, that could lead to major changes.
I can’t speculate on the probability of any of these scenarios. Still, there is a real chance that Google the end of 2025 will be a fundamentally different company than Google at the start of 2025.
Simultaneously, Google is also facing its first viable competitors in decades. OpenAI and Perplexity are not Bing or DuckDuckGo – they are well-resourced challengers, and they are looking to take a sizable chunk of the search market. Google’s hands are doubly tied – not only are they distracted by the antitrust lawsuit, but if they fight off these newcomers aggressively, they may piss off regulators further.
Even if Google navigates its legal challenges while beating its competition, search could still change dramatically in the coming years. Google’s AI search features are pretty simple at present, but they may grow more sophisticated in the coming years. While this scenario is the least disruptive to the others I’ve mentioned, even under these conditions, we could be looking at significant changes in the near future.
Why start SEO now if the rules could radically shift in the next 6-18 months?
Who should be doing SEO?
This analysis does not apply to everyone. New websites are tricky since they lack data and must invest heavily to get started. These investments will often take 6+ months to mature.
This analysis will also vary by business. SEO may be worthwhile if you sell a product that can be bought over the internet and is targeted at an underserved niche market. Run the “traditional” playbook, and it will likely pay off. For example, science marketers may still have decent opportunities since specialized areas of study often need unique tools, giving you long-tail keywords to target.
What if you already have a website with considerable SEO investment and traffic? The answer lies in your analytics. You should probably maintain your investment if your traffic is growing and satisfying downstream marketing needs. Keep an eye on your traffic, and be ready to experiment. If your SEO traffic is weak, it may be time to lower your investment to “life support” levels. Wait to see how things shake out before increasing investment.
Wherever you sit, it’s worth reevaluating your investment in SEO. There is a lot of uncertainty. Holding back on investing in SEO for 2025 is a safe bet for most of us.
